ABSTRACT
Background: Iran is one of the countries that has been overwhelmed with COVID-19. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-19 related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios. Methods: We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A: 0% isolation, through E: 40% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Findings: Under scenario A, we estimated 5,196,000 (UI 1,753,000 - 10,220,000) infections to happen till mid-June with 966,000 (UI 467,800 - 1,702,000) hospitalizations and 111,000 (UI 53,400 - 200,000) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by 90% (i.e. 550,000) and change the epidemic peak from 66,000 on June 9th to 9,400 on March 1st. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by 92% (i.e. 74,500), and deaths by 93% (i.e. 7,800). Interpretation: With no approved vaccination or therapy, we found physical distancing and isolation that includes public awareness and case-finding/isolation of 40% of infected people can reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Iran by 90% by mid-June.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
BackgroundThe novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has put a great burden on global health and healthcare systems. One of the vulnerable groups to COVID-19 infection and complications is the pregnant women. There is controversy regarding the possibility of vertical transmission of COVID-19 from mother to infant. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the possibility of vertical transmission of COVID-19 based on currently published literature including observational studies. All published articles including case reports, case series,MethodsThis study will be conducted on all published observational studies, including cross-sectional studies, cohort, case-control, case reports, and case series, in peer reviewed journals in any language until the end of March 2020. Editorials, commentaries and letter to editors will be excluded from the review. Search will be conducted in international bibliographic databases including PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science based on preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analysis (PRISMA) checklist. Primary search will be performed in PubMed and Embase using the Coronavirus 2019 and vertical transmission keywords based on medical subject heading (MeSH) terms along with free text searching in combination with Boolean operations. The search strategy will be improved and finalized based on the results of the primary search. The World Health Organization (WHO) and google scholar websites will be searched as grey literature. Articles will be reviewed by two authors independently for the relevance of titles and abstracts. Data extraction of the included articles will be performed by two researchers using the Zotero and review manager (revMan) software. Heterogeneity of the articles will be assessed using DerSimonian & Laird Q test and I 2 statistic. The pooled estimated prevalence of vertical transmission of COVID-19 will be performed using the Metaprop command. Publication bias will be assessed using the Begg's rank correlation and the Egger weighted regression methods.DiscussionThe findings of this systematic review and meta-analysis will help practitioners and health care providers in decision making for the care and management of COVID-19 infected pregnant women. Systematic review registration In process